AGP Executive Report

Tunisia Livestock Recovery Plan (2026–2030): Tunisia has launched a five-year programme to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, targeting cattle and small ruminants with funding from the state budget, the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Development Fund and partners, including support for small farmers to access loans and subsidies for breeding purebred heifers and calves. Agriculture Shock in Kasserine: The cereal harvest in Kasserine is down sharply, with barley production estimated at about 500,000 quintals (vs 650,000 last season), blamed on drought, delayed seed supplies, seed quality issues, and fertilizer shortages. Phosphate & Food Security Angle: A new geopolitical read on Morocco–Tunisia phosphate links the market shake-up to Western fertilizer security, positioning Tunisia as a logistics and diversification hub in the Maghreb. Auto Industry Upgrading: Tunisia’s automotive sector is pushing beyond component manufacturing toward higher-value integration and an electric mobility ecosystem, aiming to position the country as a regional production platform. Tunindex & Market Signals: The TUNINDEX rose 0.82% to a new all-time high, while sector movers included gains in banking and pharma and declines in sanitary ware and car dealership shares. World Bank Caution: The World Bank sees modest recovery but warns Tunisia still faces high debt, weak job creation, limited external financing and stalled IMF talks. Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia also moved on bilateral cooperation talks (including Nigeria) and continued trade alignment efforts, including updates to rules of origin and transport terms in regional trade frameworks.

Tunisia Agriculture: Kasserine’s cereal harvest is down sharply: barley output is estimated at about 500,000 quintals (70% of the campaign), down from 650,000 last season, blamed on drought, late seed supply, seed quality issues, and fertilizer shortages (DAP and ammonium nitrate), with yields in rain-fed areas often below 20 quintals per hectare. Tunisia Livestock Recovery: Tunisia has launched a 2026–2030 plan to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, using a mix of budget funds, the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Development Fund, and partners; support targets small farmers’ access to loans and subsidies for breeding purebred heifers and calves, alongside digital livestock monitoring and stronger animal health services. Tunisia Economy & Markets: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest (2.5% growth in 2025) but fragile, citing high debt, limited external financing, and stalled IMF talks. Tunindex Watch: The Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, led by gains in SIPHAT and BNA, while SANIMED and ENNAKL AUTOMOBILES fell. Trade & Industry: Tunisia is pushing its auto sector toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to build an electric mobility ecosystem and move beyond spare parts toward deeper integration. Consumer Protection: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, including excessive price hikes and unfulfilled services, calling for regulation and price ceilings by region. Regional Shipping Risk: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice after IRGC warning shots, raising uncertainty for fertilizer and shipping flows.

Phosphate & Food Security: A new geopolitical push around phosphate supply puts Tunisia back in the spotlight as a logistics and diversification hub, with the Maghreb corridor framed as a way to stabilize fertilizer access for the US and Europe. Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026–2030 programme to rebuild its drought-hit livestock herd, using budget funds, a competitiveness fund and partners, with support for small farmers and subsidies tied to herd renewal. Transport of Phosphate: Tunisia’s rail haul of phosphate fell 23% in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, even as a planned railway rehabilitation loan targets upgrades for the phosphate lines. Tunindex Update: The Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70, led by gains in SIPHAT and BNA, while SANIMED and Ennakl Automobiles lagged. Automotive Shift: Tunisia’s auto sector is moving toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to deepen integration and build an electric mobility ecosystem. Consumer Watch: Tunisia’s consumer guidance group warns of summer rental abuses, calling for regulation on pricing and service transparency. World Bank Outlook: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest and job creation remains weak, with debt and financing constraints still weighing on the outlook.

Phosphate & Food Security: With Beijing freezing phosphate exports until August 2026, a new Tunisia–Morocco push is being framed as a strategic logistics corridor to secure fertilizers for the US and Europe, putting mining and rail-linked supply back at the center of “national security” thinking. Rail & Mining Logistics: Tunisia’s SNCFT says phosphate transport fell 22.95% in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, despite an approved AFESD loan to modernize dedicated rail lines (including Line 21 linking Gafsa to Gabès). Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026–2030 roadmap to rebuild cattle and small ruminants after drought, with funding via the national budget and the Agricultural Sector Competitiveness Fund, plus digital monitoring and stronger animal health services. Auto Industry Upgrade: Tunisia is shifting its auto sector toward high-value manufacturing and an electric mobility ecosystem, aiming to move from parts production to deeper integration and EV-related capabilities. Capital Markets Watch: The Tunis Stock Exchange’s Tunindex hit a new all-time high, while the annual review shows 2025 profits up 7.2% overall for listed firms. Consumer & Tourism Pressure: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, calling for clearer rules on pricing and promised services. Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia’s foreign minister discussed expanding cooperation with Nigeria in ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing and petroleum, while Tunisia also met the Netherlands’ ambassador on future projects. Geopolitics Affecting Trade: The Strait of Hormuz was reported closed by Iran’s IRGC Navy, raising fresh uncertainty for fertilizer and shipping flows.

Tunindex Watch: The Tunis Stock Exchange’s Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, led by gains at SIPHAT (+4.4%) and BNA (+3.1%), while SANIMED (-4.3%) and ENNAKL Automobiles (-1.7%) dragged. Public Finance Stress Test: A review of the BCT’s 2025 annual report flags a risky 2026 outlook, noting growth assumptions tied to government projections and fuel-subsidy cuts that could widen pressure on households and industry. World Bank Outlook: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is underway (2.5% growth in 2025) but remains fragile, with high debt, limited external financing, and weak job creation for young people. Automotive Upgrade: Tunisia is shifting its auto industry toward higher-value manufacturing, aiming to build an electric mobility ecosystem and move from parts production to deeper integration. Trade & Industry Links: Tunisia’s foreign ministry discussed cooperation with Nigeria in high-value sectors (ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing, petroleum), while talks with the Netherlands focused on agriculture, water, environment, and jobs. Phosphate Logistics: Rail transport of phosphate fell 23% in the first half of 2026, despite approved financing for railway rehabilitation dedicated to phosphate. Consumer Protection: Tunisia’s consumer watchdog warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, citing excessive price hikes and unfulfilled services, calling for clearer rules and price ceilings. Customs Crackdown: Customs seized 78.4 kg of cocaine, 17 kg of gold, 72 kg of silver, and millions in smuggled goods and currency in the first half of 2026.

Tunisia’s Auto Push: Tunisia is shifting its automotive industry toward high-value manufacturing, aiming to move from component production to a fuller electric mobility ecosystem as EVs reshape demand. World Bank Watch: The World Bank says Tunisia’s recovery is modest (2.5% growth in 2025) but threatened by high public debt, stalled IMF talks, and weak job creation. Trade & Industry Links: Tunisia also keeps strengthening external ties, including Nigeria and the Netherlands, while Morocco–UK rules of origin updates show how regional supply chains may need to adapt. Phosphate Logistics: Tunisia’s rail transport of phosphate fell 23% in the first half of 2026, despite approved financing for line rehabilitation. Corporate Performance: The Tunis Stock Exchange reports 2025 profits up 7.2% to 3.179 billion dinars, with Tunindex20 driving most gains. Consumer Protection: A Tunisian consumer group warns of abuses in summer apartment rentals, calling for regulation and price ceilings. Environment & Plastics: Tunisia moves to ban single-use plastic bags and plans industrial support to convert production lines, backed by extended producer responsibility. Customs Crackdown: Customs seized major quantities of drugs, gold, foreign currency, and contraband goods in early 2026 operations.

High-Value Auto Push: Tunisia’s automotive sector is pitching a shift from component manufacturing to higher-value, even electric-mobility production, with the industry already driving about $4.3bn in annual exports and 120,000 jobs across 300+ firms. IFC-Backed Supplier Expansion: The World Bank’s IFC plans €52m to help German auto supplier Marquardt expand in Tunisia, targeting production modernization, new equipment and working capital, plus stronger links with local SMEs and training partners. Phosphate Rail Slump: Tunisian rail freight of phosphate and derivatives fell 23% in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, despite a 16m Kuwaiti dinar AFESD-backed plan to rehabilitate phosphate-dedicated lines. Tunisia Stock Exchange Profits Up: Listed companies’ 2025 net profit rose 7.2% to 3.179bn dinars, led by Tunindex20’s 82% share of total earnings. EU Trade Mix Stays Flat: Tunisia’s EU import market share held at 0.53% in 2025, with machinery and chemicals gaining while basic products, food and fuel-related categories lost ground. Energy-Security Cabinet Moves: The government reviewed draft laws and decrees on energy security, food security, housing, health and air transport, stressing a “cultural and administrative revolution” to improve public service performance. Customs Crackdown: Tunisian customs seized 78.4kg of cocaine, 17kg of gold and 5.5m dinars in foreign currency attempts, alongside large contraband seizures including cigarettes and coffee. Plastic Bag Ban Draft: MPs propose a nationwide ban on single-use plastic bags, with a transition period and an Extended Producer Responsibility approach, plus support for alternative-material production.

Tunisia’s Customs Crackdown: Tunisia’s General Directorate of Customs reports major first-half 2026 seizures, including 78.4 kg of cocaine, 134.5 kg of cannabis, 17 kg of gold, and 5.5 million dinars in foreign currency, alongside large hauls of cigarettes, coffee, bananas, ready-to-wear goods, and fireworks. Energy & Industry Policy: The government says a Cabinet meeting chaired by the Head of Government reviewed draft laws and decrees tied to energy security, food security, housing, health, and air transport, pushing for a “cultural and administrative revolution” in public services. Plastics & Circular Economy: Tunisia moves to ban single-use plastic bags nationwide, with a transition period and technical rules for reusable and biodegradable alternatives, plus Extended Producer Responsibility and penalties. Road Safety Push: Tunisia is working on a 2025–2034 national multisectoral road safety strategy, aiming to cut accidents sharply through smart radars, first-aid training, and coordinated action with health and interior bodies. Trade & Manufacturing Signals: Tunisia’s denim sector is preparing for EU Digital Product Passports, showing how local manufacturers are adapting to new traceability and recycling data demands. Regional Tech for Agriculture: Africa expands digital plant health surveillance under the phytosanitary programme, now reaching 38 countries, while scientists in Accra harmonise microplastics monitoring protocols across 21 African countries.

Plastic Policy: Tunisia is moving to ban single-use plastic bags nationwide, with a transition period of up to a year and phased-out plastic packaging for food sold by weight; the bill also sets technical rules for reusable and biodegradable alternatives, plus Extended Producer Responsibility and penalties for violations. Road Safety & Industry Costs: Tunisia’s road accidents cost about 1.73 billion dinars a year (1.15% of GDP), with nearly 10,000 victims annually; officials unveiled a 10-year multisector strategy (2025-2034) aiming to cut accidents by 50% via smart radars, first-aid training, and coordinated public-private action. Agri-Tech & Trade Compliance: FAO and partners expanded Africa’s digital plant health drive to 38 countries, training phytosanitary specialists to harmonise pest monitoring and reporting using geospatial tools. Marine Environment Monitoring: GAEC in Accra gathered scientists from 21 African countries to align microplastics monitoring protocols using nuclear and isotopic techniques, targeting comparable coastal data for better policy. Tunisia-EU Supply Chains: UNEP highlights how Tunisia’s denim makers are preparing for EU Digital Product Passports, pushing digitised product data (traceability, care, repair, recycling) to meet upcoming regulation timelines. FDI & Regional Investment: UNCTAD data cited by Dhaman shows the UAE topped Arab FDI inflows in 2025 with $48.2B, while Arab investment climate rankings stayed broadly stable.

Tunisia Road Safety Push: Tunisia’s road accidents cost the economy about 1.73 billion dinars a year (around 1.15% of GDP), with nearly 10,000 victims annually; officials unveiled a 2025–2034 national multisectoral strategy built with the private sector and civil society, aiming to cut crashes by 50% through smart radars and first-aid training. Textile Industry Compliance: Tunisia’s denim makers are preparing for the EU Digital Product Passports (DPP) under the ESPR rules, with DPP data (traceability, care, repair, recycling) expected to phase in for EU sales around 2028–2029, pushing factories to adapt complex supply chains. Health Supply Crunch: UTICA’s medical supplies chamber warns that over 600 companies face a cash crisis as the Ministry of Health and CNAM leave unpaid invoices (some dating back to 2020)—threatening hospital access to devices and maintenance. Automotive Investment Signal: The IFC backs Tunisia’s automotive ambitions with $59.4m financing for a German supplier, targeting factory upgrades, SME linkages, skills partnerships, and digital upskilling. Regional Trade Link: Türkiye’s exports to Africa rose 12% to $11bn in H1, with Tunisia among key destinations (about $619m), highlighting growing cooperation in sectors like textiles, logistics, mining and automotive. Energy & Finance Pressure: Economists warn Tunisia’s energy deficit is worsening as oil prices run above the $63.3 budget assumption, adding strain to the state budget and foreign-currency reserves. Aerospace Networking: Italy and Tunisia opened Aerospace Meetings Tunisia to strengthen the aerospace supply chain, industrial innovation and new partnerships, with B2B sessions and themes on AI and decarbonisation.

Road Safety Push: Tunisia is rolling out a 10-year national multisector road safety strategy (2025-2034), aiming to cut crashes by 50% with smart radars and first-aid training, backed by the Interior Ministry, health partners and the WHO. Textile Industry Update: Tunisia’s denim makers are preparing for EU Digital Product Passports (DPP) under the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation, with phased compliance expected to hit EU sales around 2028-2029. Tunisia’s Cash Supply: The Central Bank of Tunisia says it issued 117 million new banknotes in 2025 and 30 million coins, while processing and recirculating most fit notes to meet growing demand. Automotive Manufacturing Finance: The World Bank’s IFC is set to back Marquardt’s Tunisia expansion with $59.4m, targeting factory upgrades, skills partnerships and digital upskilling to strengthen the local supply chain. Solar Investment: MIGA approved a €13.05m guarantee for Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting long-term financing and a 25-year power purchase deal with STEG. Aerospace Linkages: Italy’s ambassador highlighted Tunisia’s aerospace potential at Aerospace Meetings Tunisia, pitching B2B ties and industrial innovation. Real Estate Recruitment: SNIT Nord opened an external recruitment competition for five agents/executives across northern branches, with applications due July 27. FDI Benchmarking: Regional investment reports show Jordan’s FDI rose 25% in 2025 and the UAE topped Arab FDI inflows, underscoring the competitive push for investment across MENA.

Tunisia Inflation Watch: Tunisia’s inflation eased to 5.3% year-on-year in June, with food prices slowing (food & beverages +7.1% vs +8.2% in May) while services stayed firm, including a jump in hotel prices (+15.4% y/y). Cash Supply Update: Tunisia’s Central Bank says it issued 117 million new banknotes in 2025 (value 3,509 million dinars) and 30 million coins, stepping up cash processing to meet demand for the 2026–2027 cycle. Automotive Industry Finance: The World Bank’s IFC is set to back Marquardt’s Tunisia expansion with $59.4m, targeting factory upgrades, skills partnerships, and digital upskilling to strengthen the local supply chain. Renewable Energy Deal: MIGA approved a €13.05m, 20-year guarantee for Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting a long-term power purchase agreement with STEG. Housing & Jobs: SNIT Nord opened an external recruitment competition for five agents/executives, with online applications running until July 27. Tourism Spotlight: Yasmine Hammamet Beach in Tunisia topped TUI’s Beautiful Beach Index as the world’s most beautiful beach. Aerospace & Industry Links: Italy and Tunisia pushed aerospace cooperation at Aerospace Meetings Tunisia, with B2B sessions on supply chains, AI in industry, and decarbonisation.

Tunisia’s Inflation Watch: Tunisia’s inflation eased to 5.3% year-on-year in June, down from 5.5% in May, as food price growth cooled (food & beverages +7.1% vs +8.2% in May), while tobacco and leisure/culture ticked up. Automotive Industry Finance: The IFC is set to approve $59.4m financing for Marquardt’s expansion in Tunisia, targeting factory upgrades, equipment and working capital, plus stronger links with local SMEs and skills via universities and vocational partners. Renewable Energy Push: MIGA approved a 20-year guarantee of up to €13.05m for Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting AEOLUS/Scatec’s equity and Tunisia’s STEG power purchase deal. Trade & Diplomacy: Nigeria and Tunisia agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, investment, education, defence, technology and people-to-people ties, with plans to revive the joint commission. Shipping Decarbonisation: Wärtsilä will supply fuel-flexible and hybrid propulsion systems for Grimaldi Group’s nine new ferries, including routes linking Italy, Spain, Greece and Tunisia. Pharma Sector Milestone: TERIAK (Groupe Kilani) received MSI 20000 certification, highlighting financial strength and performance for Tunisia’s pharmaceutical manufacturer. Agriculture Inputs: Fertilizer supply concerns eased as 15 vessels carrying urea, DAP and sulphur safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with Tunisia listed among DAP/NPK sources.

Tunisia Inflation Watch: Tunisia’s inflation eased to 5.3% year-on-year in June, driven by slower food price growth (food and beverages +7.1% vs 8.2% in May), while tobacco and leisure/culture ticked up. Solar Finance: MIGA approved a €13.05m, 20-year guarantee for the 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project in Mezzouna, supporting a 25-year power purchase deal with STEG and backed by EBRD/EIB plus EU EFSD+ support. Pharma Industry: TERIAK (Groupe Kilani) received MSI 20000 certification for financial excellence; the Tunisian pharma group employs 650 staff and produces 30m+ boxes annually for local and export markets. Trade & Payments: China’s RMB Clearing Bank for Africa was authorized to serve African institutions, a move Tunisian media links to easing FX pressure and improving China-Africa payment efficiency. Water Sector: Tunisia’s water ministry says it negotiated a roughly $2.5bn cost reduction for the National Conveyance Project and pushed tariff reforms to manage a sector debt burden. Regional Energy Context: Algeria targets $25bn investment to expand hydrogen production by 2040, aiming at exports to Europe. Tunisia Business-Policy: Tunisian Customs launched a survey on customs clearance times, while IACE called for urgent legal reforms to revive investment and growth.

Renewables & Power: Oman is moving ahead with four 1 GW solar-based IPPs (2028–2029) plus 2 GW of wind, aiming to lift renewable share from 13.6% (2026) to 45% by 2030, alongside pumped-hydro storage and a 500 MW solar deal. Finance & Trade Infrastructure: China’s RMB Clearing Bank for Africa has been authorized, letting firms in 19 African countries access China’s onshore system for RMB settlements—an FX-pressure relief angle for Tunisia-linked trade. Tunisia Water & Utilities: SONEDE will cut water supply daily from midnight to 5 a.m. in Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia to rebalance reservoirs and test the Sousse seawater desalination plant before full production. Energy & Industry Supply Chains: India reports 15 fertilizer cargo vessels safely crossing the Strait of Hormuz (urea, DAP and sulphur), with Tunisia and Morocco listed among sourcing routes—good news for farm inputs. Regional Development Finance: EBRD plans to expand its Sub-Saharan footprint to five economies (Nigeria, Kenya, Benin, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire), with a stronger private-sector focus. Tunisia Business/Logistics: Tunisian Customs launched a survey on customs clearance times, targeting faster trade flows. Hydrogen Push (Algeria): Algeria estimates $25B needed by 2040 to scale green and blue hydrogen for European exports.

Energy Infrastructure: Hitachi Energy has won a ~€770m contract for the ELMED HVDC submarine link between Tunisia and Italy, building converter stations in Sicily and Cap Bon with 600MW capacity over ~220km. Water & Utilities: SONEDE announced daily early-morning water cuts in Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia (midnight–5am) while tests continue for the Sahel desalination plant, citing summer demand and reservoir imbalance. Trade & Logistics: Tunisia’s General Directorate of Customs launched a survey to map customs clearance delays, targeting importers, transport firms, shipping agents and port/airport operators, with responses due by July 31. Sustainable Development: Tunisia placed 3rd in Africa and 72nd globally in the 2026 Sustainable Development Report, scoring 71.3/100 but still facing territorial inequalities and resource pressures. Regional Energy Transition: Algeria says it needs about $25bn by 2040 to scale hydrogen production for European markets, combining green and blue hydrogen plans. Agriculture Inputs: India reported 15 fertilizer shipments safely crossing the Strait of Hormuz (urea, DAP and sulphur), helping stabilize stocks ahead of the agricultural season.